Coming soon

Coming up in the coming 1-2 weeks will be historical data as well as forecasted future developments of the geostrategic index itself, the underlying variables of the index and not the least,  the geographic movement of the centroids (center of gravity) over time.
It might be that the results from those calculations will be rolled out and published in step wise fashion. As previously, in those upcoming calculations, i will use credible open source data from institutions such as the IMF, World bank etc and make as little own predictions as possible, to further validate my results.

Risks for USA and China

The big challange for USA going forward is the debt levels (see world debt map) that have been built up for some time and really accelerated since the financial crisis broke out 2008. US debt levels have not yet reached unsustainable levels and so should be possible to bring under control if the national leadership is there. The debt levels is not explicitly part of the geostrategic power index but of course the cost of servicing the debt is something that indirectly feeds through and into a lower GDP growth rate  than would otherwise have been possible to achieve. However at the moment this cost is manageable due to the low interest rates charged on US debt which to a large degree in itself is depent on the US dollar being the Worlds reserve currency and so the USD is very sought after in times of turmoil keeping the interes rates low and the currency stable. In short depending on the will and ability of US leaders to bring balance to the national finances the USA holds its own future in its own hands to a very large degree which must be considered a good thing. 
China on the other hand have an altogether different level of risk. These risks are not part of the geostrategic power index and will not be included in the coming forecasts so they must be evaluated separately and complementary to the geostrategic power index. These risks include the tremendous economic inequality built up in the last years, massive urbanisation, massive and fast demographic change with aging of the population, massive water shortages in the North and spreading desertification, massive environmental issuess,
These are some of the challenges confronting China and looking back at the chinese history with its history of frequent rebellions, regional power centers and uprisings it is no wonder the chinese leaderships all overriding concern is and will be to keep the domestic peace at all cost. This is of course also of vital importance in order for the communist leadership literally to keep their heads on their shoulders.  

Geostrategic power index - comments and conclusions

The calculated geostrategic power index is a crude way to measure power but it is quite simple calculations used, using open data sources with clearly defined data with possibility to repeat calculations over time. What about the results then ? Could China be more powerful (already) than almighty USA. Why not i say. Not long ago Britain was the leading power in the world and i am sure that for the centemporary common people it would be hard to visualize Britain not being top dog.
However it is worth noting again i do not include or calculate with different forms of soft power in the geostrategic power index,  where USA is far more influential than China currently.
(Interesting to read in this regard is Pew Research´s Global Balance of Power including global survey results on such topics as USA-China image, Power etc)

Power projection capability

It must also be added that geostrategic power is not the same thing as capability for military power projection. China is a country located on the eurasian land mass bordering on some pretty signifikant and potentially hostile powers e,g India, Vietnam, Japan, South Korea and Russia all of which China have been at war with or experienced military clashes with at one point or the other since the 2nd World war. This means that to a considerable degree the structure and force dispositions of Chinas armed forces will be geared towards countering those potential adversaries and not readily available for long distance Power projection . Compare this to the USA position with its "sheltered" location in the western hemisphere surrounded by more or less friendly countries, except for Cuba and Venezuela which can be safely ignored as strategic threats, which leaves a major part of the US armed forces available for global Power projection missions.
All in all i think China have to reach a minimum of double the US geostrategic power index to be able to reach the same level of global power projection capability.
So in clonclusion then the nature of Chinese and US Power is different and Chinas Power is bound to be tied up more in its immediate neighborhood than US power which is more readily available for global outreach. Concerning other powers it is worthwile to note the outsize power of North Korea and Israel in the power index due mostly to the nuclear weapons status of these contries but also due to the considerable size of the conventional military.            

Comment on the Russia - Ukraine conflict (1)

I can not resist adding a comment related to the ongoing Russia - Ukraine conflict before coming back to the main subject of the geostrategic power index.

Russia with Putin at the helm have a strategic goal and a tactical plan for how to accomplish that goal. The west in general is probably and europé for sure is unable to respond to the russian game plan.
Putin have said that the collapse of the Sovjet Union was the biggest geopolitical catastrophe in the 20th Century. He said it and he meant it but he shouldn´t have said it because in that comment he also exposed his inner thoughts and to what purpose he intends to use his time in the highest offices of Russia. His all overriding concern is and will be to redress the severe decline in russian power since the collapse of the Sovjet Union. The way to do this is to claw back land and not least people in the  near abroad of Russia. The targets will be heavily ethnic russian populated parts of the near abroad such as Crimea, east Ukraine and north Kazakhstan as the most vulnerable parts up for grabs.
However, Russia today is not Sovjet Union but a much weaker Power not least in the military sense and so Putin knows he cant do all the grabbing in one go but will have to do it in step wise fashion. The tactical way or template to acchieve his strategic goal of adding people and land to russia is unfolding before our eyes concerning Crimea. First step is to grab what he want and do it fast and so establish facts on the ground (much like Israel is doing in Palestine with the everexpanding settlements in occupied terrritory). Secondly to arrange a popular vote in the territory grabbed and since the areas in question will be heavily ethnic russian populated the outcome is pretty sure. Third is to make more or less threatening and overt moves towards other potential target areas and so make a naive World (especially Europé) grateful that Russia in the end only took Crimea. Then Russia can wait a few years, concentrate on absorbing crimea into Russia and go after the Donets basin in east Ukraine in a second land-people grab.
And whatever we like it or not if Putin can pull this off for Russia he will increase russian Power in the world and the "russian on the street" will admire him for it.
The only thing that can possibly stop this scenario unfolding, at least during Putins time in office, is some kind of credible military threat or promise of military support from the outside world or really heavy and punishing economic sanctions that bites hard.
My recommendation would be immediate and heavy economic sanctions and then play a waiting game for Putins death either literally or in the political sense. Probably what comes after Putin will not be worse, for the outside world, and he is after all 62 years old and soon past his prime.  
                  

Final comments and conclusions on the geostrategic power index results will come very soon.

Geostrategic power index - Results

The Geostrategic power index map shows the results from calculating the geostrategic power as a share of world total. The aggregated sum total of all the countries which is also equal to the world total is 100 %. Power is hard to define but it is a relative concept,, in this case measured on inter-country level, so it is possible to express in percentages.

Geostrategic power index results:

1. China                                        20 %
2. USA                                          17 %
3. India                                            8 %
4. Russia                                         7 %
5. France                                         4 %
6. UK                                              4 %
7. NorthKorea                                 3 %
8. Pakistan                                      3 %
9. Israel                                           3 %
10. Brazil                                          3 %
11. Japan                                           3 %
12. Germany                                     2 %
13. Rest of World                           23 %  

Equal weight in the power index calculations have been given to 4 component parts namely:

• Population - Geography
• Economy(GDP)
• Military expenditures - Military Manpower
• Nuclear weapons

It is also the case that the Population - Geography component in the calculations have been done in such a way as to "reward" a balanced population - geography meaning that e.g. Canada and Australia, with huge landmasses but relatively small populations , do not score unreasonably high in this component. A failure to properly populate a landmass sufficiently is a weakness from a power point of view expecially when bordering on countries such as USA and Indonesia with huge populations.

Please note that the Geostrategic power centroid is located in Southern Siberia (Novosibirsk) in Russia.

Geostrategic power index - variable 6: Geography

The sixth variable visualized and included in the calculation  of the geostrategic power index is the geography in terms of size of land area. The reason for including the geographic land area in the power index calculation is due to size of the land as a source of natural resources, living space for the people and strategic depth in case of conflict. E.g. think Russia in conflicts during its history where the strategic depth have saved the country on numerous ocaasions.
The  Geography map visualizes the size of the land area in Square kilometers and as a share (%) of world total land area for each country. Click on corresponding bubbles for details. Russia is by far the largest country in the World with USA, Canada and China tied for 2nd Place.
(It should be noted that the Arctic and Antarctica is not included in the calculations)
The map also shows that the world centroid or center of gravity for geographic land area is located in Eastern Ukraine.

Geostrategic power index - variable 5: Population

The fifth variable visualized and included in the calculation  of the geostrategic power index is the population . The reason for including the population count in the power index calculation is due both to the immediate and the potential asset that a big population can be. Admittedly a big population can also be a burden if concentrated on land or in circumstances that is not fit or suitable for a healthy development of the country. In my mind think e.g. densely populated Bangladesh situated to a large extent in a low lying river delta prone to flooding. Still Bangladesh worries India in terms of large scale illegal (muslim) immigration so even in this case a large population implies power.   
The Population map visualizes the size of the population in millions and as a share (%) of world total population for each country. Click on corresponding bubbles for details. India and China have by far the largest populations currently and India will surpace China in 10-20 years time on current trends.
The map also shows that the world centroid or center of gravity for population is located in North West India.

Geostrategic power index - variable 4: Economy (GDP)

The fourth variable visualized and included in the calculation  of the geostrategic power index is the economy (GDP). The rationale for including the economy and its size in the calculation of any power index is i think obvious as it both indicates potential for spend on domestic armed forces and equipment as well as ability and potential for funding and supporting allies and friendly countries. On top of this comes the civilian impact and influence from trade, FDI flows etc (arguably power components) for which GDP size can act as a crude but sufficiently accurate indicator for the purpose of calculating a power index. 
The GDP map visualizes the size of the economy in billion USD and as a share (%) of world total GDP for each country. Click on corresponding bubbles for details. USA, China and Japan in that order have the largest economies currently.
The map also shows that the world centroid or center of gravity for economy (GDP) is located in the South East of the european part of Russia (Kazan).
   

Geostrategic power index - variable 3: Nuclear weapons

The third variable visualized and included in the calculation  of my geostrategic power index is nuclear weapons. The nuclear weapons variable indicates simply if a country have nuclear weapons yes or no. It does not take into account the number of weapons in the inventory or what kind of carrier is available to deliver the payload (air,sea,ground launch). My view is that nuclear weapons possession is a real power indicator wether we like it or not, why else would most of the world be so anxious to stop Iran developing "the bomb" and what respect or impact would North Korea have on the rest of the world if they did not have the bomb.
The Nuclear weapons map visualizes the 8 countries currently in possession of nuclear weapons. Click on images to see which countries.
Ukraine and South Africa, have previously been in possession of nuclear weapons but opted out of the "nuclear club".
The map also shows that the world centroid or center of gravity for nuclear weapons is located in central Kazakhstan.

Geostrategic power index - variable 2: Military Manpower

Here comes the second variable visualized and included in the calculation of my geostrategic power index, namely military Manpower. Please note that military manpower refers only to the active duty personnel of all armed services in national defence. Home guards, national guards, other part time or paramilitary forces is not included in this manpower head count.
The rationale for including military manpower as a variable in calculating the geostrategic power index is that you cant compensate fully for quantity with tehnology and quality. The ability to field a critical mass of soldiers is vital in certain situations and especially when it comes to holding ground , combat guerrilas, pacify rebellions and sustained combat operations.
The Military manpower map visualizes the number of active duty military personnel and active duty military personnel as a share (%) of the world total, for each country of the world by clicking on the corresponding soldier image. China have the largest active duty manpower followed by USA, India, North Korea and Russia, all with 1 million + active duty military personnel.
The map also shows that the world centroid or center of gravity for military manpower is located in South East Uzbekistan.

Geostrategic power index - variable 1: Military expenditures

The first variable visualized and included in the calculation of my geostrategic power index is military expenditures for all countries of the world. This is an imperfect way to reflect military power and power projection capabilities of countries but i feel it is too complicated to even try counting tanks, fighter planes, warships etc as it would be impossible to quantify and make comparisons over the quality and capabilities of different types of weapon systems. So military expenditures will have to serve as an imperfect reflection of the technical sophistication and capability of armed forces.
The Military expenditure map visualizes annual military expenditures in Billion USD and as a share in % of annual total world military expenditures, for each country by clicking on the corresponding bubble. 
The map also shows that the world centroid or center of gravity for military expenditure is located in Hudson Bay, Canada. Not so odd given that the USA "contributes" almost 40 % of the worlds military expenditures currently. 

Geostrategic power report - foreword

So following after this post, in step wise fashion over the coming Days of week 11, will be the roll-out of my geostrategic power report. The goal with this report have been to define, calculate and assign a numeric geostrategic power index for each of the worlds countries based on a few key macro variables.
It is of course only a model and a model can never be a true reflektion of reality and especially something like power which in itself is open for discussion how to define it and what it really means.
My respons to this situation have been to construct something quite simple which is always a good characteristic for a model, with easily and readily available data as a basis for made calculations and so the model is also possible to grasp easily and not a "black box" creation.
Nevertheless despite its relative simplicity i think the results from the calculations makes a lot of sense. Remains to be seen what audiences think though. 
I have also adopted a "hard core" view on power meaning that i dont consider soft variables e.g. cultural influence in my power index. However i include as part of my power index such variables as population and total land surface area of each country as these variables clearly weighs in on the common perception of what makes a country powerful, Think e.g. Chinas and Indias 1+ billion people and a lot of us feel a bit of a worry and maybe some relief that my own home country does not share a border with those population giants.
More detailed information and explanations will follow in step with each section of the released report.

I have also calculated a centroid or center of gravity for each variable in the calculations and of course for the main power index itself to visualize where on the surface of the Earth these center positions is currently located. These centroids will probably be a subject for further calculations ahead to incorporate and visualize historical and future forecasted developments.

Coming up soon, hopefully in week 11, will be a report on the relative power of the worlds countries and where the Power center of gravity is located on the Earths Surface. 

Blog background

The background to this blogg is my great interest in history and how countries, peoples, cultures and civilizations have evolved and interacted during recorded history and how things might develop in the future.

I think that the basic human character and instincts remain unchanged since the dawn of mankind and that the history of war and conflicts up to our own times do not indicate that we have evolved and become better people. Maybe the best we can say is that we have succeeded in putting up a thin layer of organisations and mechanisms, in recent times, that can prevent and/or mitigate some of the worst atrocities.

However a rapidly expanding world population and increasing scarcity of natural resources, which is occurring in a very unbalanced way on inter-country level, is putting ever greater strain on mother earths capacity to cope and also increases the risk for conflicts on all levels. 

It is also my firm belief that an added danger in this regard comes from the relative decline or rise in wellbeing/prosperity between nations or peoples. This relative change between e.g. nations can be more or less based on real facts but almost as important in this regard can be the generally perceived feeling of relative loss of wellbeing, prosperity, influence, power  etc. A case in point for our present time is the perceived rise of China and perceived decline of USA.