Comment on the Russia - Ukraine conflict (1)

I can not resist adding a comment related to the ongoing Russia - Ukraine conflict before coming back to the main subject of the geostrategic power index.

Russia with Putin at the helm have a strategic goal and a tactical plan for how to accomplish that goal. The west in general is probably and europé for sure is unable to respond to the russian game plan.
Putin have said that the collapse of the Sovjet Union was the biggest geopolitical catastrophe in the 20th Century. He said it and he meant it but he shouldn´t have said it because in that comment he also exposed his inner thoughts and to what purpose he intends to use his time in the highest offices of Russia. His all overriding concern is and will be to redress the severe decline in russian power since the collapse of the Sovjet Union. The way to do this is to claw back land and not least people in the  near abroad of Russia. The targets will be heavily ethnic russian populated parts of the near abroad such as Crimea, east Ukraine and north Kazakhstan as the most vulnerable parts up for grabs.
However, Russia today is not Sovjet Union but a much weaker Power not least in the military sense and so Putin knows he cant do all the grabbing in one go but will have to do it in step wise fashion. The tactical way or template to acchieve his strategic goal of adding people and land to russia is unfolding before our eyes concerning Crimea. First step is to grab what he want and do it fast and so establish facts on the ground (much like Israel is doing in Palestine with the everexpanding settlements in occupied terrritory). Secondly to arrange a popular vote in the territory grabbed and since the areas in question will be heavily ethnic russian populated the outcome is pretty sure. Third is to make more or less threatening and overt moves towards other potential target areas and so make a naive World (especially Europé) grateful that Russia in the end only took Crimea. Then Russia can wait a few years, concentrate on absorbing crimea into Russia and go after the Donets basin in east Ukraine in a second land-people grab.
And whatever we like it or not if Putin can pull this off for Russia he will increase russian Power in the world and the "russian on the street" will admire him for it.
The only thing that can possibly stop this scenario unfolding, at least during Putins time in office, is some kind of credible military threat or promise of military support from the outside world or really heavy and punishing economic sanctions that bites hard.
My recommendation would be immediate and heavy economic sanctions and then play a waiting game for Putins death either literally or in the political sense. Probably what comes after Putin will not be worse, for the outside world, and he is after all 62 years old and soon past his prime.