Thursday, March 20, 2014

Geostrategic power index - comments and conclusions

The calculated geostrategic power index is a crude way to measure power but it is quite simple calculations used, using open data sources with clearly defined data with possibility to repeat calculations over time. What about the results then ? Could China be more powerful (already) than almighty USA. Why not i say. Not long ago Britain was the leading power in the world and i am sure that for the centemporary common people it would be hard to visualize Britain not being top dog.
However it is worth noting again i do not include or calculate with different forms of soft power in the geostrategic power index,  where USA is far more influential than China currently.
(Interesting to read in this regard is Pew Research´s Global Balance of Power including global survey results on such topics as USA-China image, Power etc)

Power projection capability

It must also be added that geostrategic power is not the same thing as capability for military power projection. China is a country located on the eurasian land mass bordering on some pretty signifikant and potentially hostile powers e,g India, Vietnam, Japan, South Korea and Russia all of which China have been at war with or experienced military clashes with at one point or the other since the 2nd World war. This means that to a considerable degree the structure and force dispositions of Chinas armed forces will be geared towards countering those potential adversaries and not readily available for long distance Power projection . Compare this to the USA position with its "sheltered" location in the western hemisphere surrounded by more or less friendly countries, except for Cuba and Venezuela which can be safely ignored as strategic threats, which leaves a major part of the US armed forces available for global Power projection missions.
All in all i think China have to reach a minimum of double the US geostrategic power index to be able to reach the same level of global power projection capability.
So in clonclusion then the nature of Chinese and US Power is different and Chinas Power is bound to be tied up more in its immediate neighborhood than US power which is more readily available for global outreach. Concerning other powers it is worthwile to note the outsize power of North Korea and Israel in the power index due mostly to the nuclear weapons status of these contries but also due to the considerable size of the conventional military.            

No comments:

Post a Comment